{
  "id": "census_2023_mortality_projections",
  "title": "U.S. Census Bureau 2023 National Population Projections \u2014 all-cause mortality measures",
  "kind": "demographic_all_cause_projections",
  "not_disease_specific": true,
  "vintage": "2023 National Population Projections (main / middle immigration series for deaths file np2023_d3_mid)",
  "base_population": "July 1, 2022 resident population estimates; projects 2023\u20132100 (charts on this site show 2023\u20132060)",
  "horizon_full": "2100",
  "horizon_shown": "2060",
  "publication_urls": {
    "datasets": "https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2023/demo/popproj/2023-popproj.html",
    "methodology": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/technical-documentation/methodology/methodstatement23.pdf",
    "press": "https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html"
  },
  "assumptions_summary": [
    "Cohort-component projections of population by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity.",
    "Mortality projected from historical NCHS death data (methodology uses 1989\u20132019 patterns; COVID-era 2020 mortality is not treated as the long-run target path \u2014 see Census method statement).",
    "Life expectancy at birth is projected toward long-run UN model life-table targets (male e0 87 and female e0 91 by 2123 in the method statement).",
    "Projected deaths are model outputs that apply projected survivorship to the projected population \u2014 they are all-cause counts, not cause-specific forecasts and not age-adjusted death rates.",
    "Immigration scenarios exist (high/low/zero); death file used here is the middle (main) series."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "These are not forecasts of heart disease, cancer, overdose, suicide, or any other cause.",
    "Projected life expectancy and projected death counts are not interchangeable with NCHS observed age-adjusted cause-specific death rates on other pages.",
    "Census projected values for years that already have NCHS final observations can differ from those observations; this site plots them in a separate projected series and shows recent NCHS observations separately.",
    "No published uncertainty intervals are provided in the Census CSV extracts used here; do not invent confidence bands.",
    "CDC/NCHS does not publish an official cause-specific national mortality forecast comparable to Data Brief observed series; where such forecasts are absent, this site states that plainly."
  ],
  "retrieved_utc": "2026-11-05T22:24:41Z",
  "observed_life_expectancy_nchs": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": 78.4,
      "status": "observed",
      "source_note": "NCHS published life expectancy for 2023 (Data Brief 521 series context)"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "value": 79.0,
      "status": "observed",
      "source_note": "NCHS Data Brief 548 \u2014 Mortality in the United States, 2024"
    }
  ],
  "observed_deaths_nchs": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": 3090964,
      "status": "observed",
      "source_note": "Derived from NCHS Data Brief 548 (2024 deaths 3,072,666 were 18,298 fewer than 2023)"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "value": 3072666,
      "status": "observed",
      "source_note": "NCHS Data Brief 548 \u2014 3,072,666 resident deaths in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "projected_life_expectancy": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": 79.8,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "value": 79.9,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "value": 80.1,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "value": 80.2,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "value": 80.3,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2028,
      "value": 80.5,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2029,
      "value": 80.6,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2030,
      "value": 80.7,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2031,
      "value": 80.9,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2032,
      "value": 81.0,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2033,
      "value": 81.1,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2034,
      "value": 81.3,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2035,
      "value": 81.4,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2036,
      "value": 81.5,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2037,
      "value": 81.7,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2038,
      "value": 81.8,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2039,
      "value": 81.9,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2040,
      "value": 82.0,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2041,
      "value": 82.1,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2042,
      "value": 82.3,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2043,
      "value": 82.4,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2044,
      "value": 82.5,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2045,
      "value": 82.6,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2046,
      "value": 82.7,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2047,
      "value": 82.8,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2048,
      "value": 83.0,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2049,
      "value": 83.1,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2050,
      "value": 83.2,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2051,
      "value": 83.3,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2052,
      "value": 83.4,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2053,
      "value": 83.5,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2054,
      "value": 83.6,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2055,
      "value": 83.7,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2056,
      "value": 83.8,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2057,
      "value": 83.9,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2058,
      "value": 84.1,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2059,
      "value": 84.2,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2060,
      "value": 84.3,
      "status": "projected"
    }
  ],
  "projected_deaths_total": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": 2861510,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "value": 2911571,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "value": 2960487,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "value": 3009069,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "value": 3058180,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2028,
      "value": 3108324,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2029,
      "value": 3159601,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2030,
      "value": 3211992,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2031,
      "value": 3265202,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2032,
      "value": 3318855,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2033,
      "value": 3372599,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2034,
      "value": 3426224,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2035,
      "value": 3479569,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2036,
      "value": 3532067,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2037,
      "value": 3583275,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2038,
      "value": 3632858,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2039,
      "value": 3680277,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2040,
      "value": 3725098,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2041,
      "value": 3767003,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2042,
      "value": 3805762,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2043,
      "value": 3841315,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2044,
      "value": 3872793,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2045,
      "value": 3899954,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2046,
      "value": 3922831,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2047,
      "value": 3943154,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2048,
      "value": 3959396,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2049,
      "value": 3971410,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2050,
      "value": 3979447,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2051,
      "value": 3984115,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2052,
      "value": 3985948,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2053,
      "value": 3985339,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2054,
      "value": 3982769,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2055,
      "value": 3978645,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2056,
      "value": 3973292,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2057,
      "value": 3967320,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2058,
      "value": 3961093,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2059,
      "value": 3954984,
      "status": "projected"
    },
    {
      "year": 2060,
      "value": 3949571,
      "status": "projected"
    }
  ]
}